Crescendo Deal Flow

Every column comes from one source of truth: our own diligence. For each deal the data-room-analyzer builds a diagnostic workbook from the seller’s raw royalty statements — never from their summary or teaser. TTM is the Net Saleable Income line of that workbook’s NSI waterfall: account-level earnings stepped down through third-party producer/mixer shares, non-acquired ownership, LODs and fees, to the income actually being conveyed. Dollar age is the revenue-weighted age of the catalogue — Σ(income × age) ÷ Σ(income) — so a catalogue earning mostly from 2005 records is old regardless of how many new tracks sit in the tail. Top 3 songs and artist are the top earners from those same statements.

Multiple = ask ÷ TTM. Where no ask has been received, a scoring matrix estimates one from seven factors (dollar age, top-10 concentration, live events, genre, growth/decay, monthly listeners, rights type); those are tagged est and are excluded from every median, so modelled numbers can never quietly become market evidence.

Comp is the median multiple of closed and quoted deals in the same genre bucket, drawn from 669 tracked deals back to 2023. A genre needs at least three real observations to publish a median; multiples outside 2–40× are treated as data errors and dropped, as are duplicate rows. The tag in the last column is the deal’s multiple minus that median, so −2.6× means it is priced well below where its genre has been clearing.

Estimated value is what the deal flow in view is worth on our own comp evidence: each deal’s TTM × the median multiple for its genre, summed. Deals whose genre has no published median fall back to the median across everything in view. It replaces a headline “ask value”, which could only add up the minority of deals where a price had actually been quoted and so was never comparable to a TTM measured across every deal with income. Because it is built from TTM — which we have for most deals — rather than from asks, it covers the portfolio rather than a self-selected slice. It is a screening figure, not a bid: it applies a genre median to a catalogue without adjusting for its own decay, concentration or rights quality.

The full comp finder narrows further — genre, dollar age ± tolerance, rights type and TTM size — ranking candidates on a 100-point similarity score (genre 40, age 30, rights 20, size 10) and reporting median and interquartile range separately for market and modelled pools. Syncopate is used only to cross-check song titles, artists, release years and genre; it is never a source for income. Where the two disagree, the diagnostic wins.